Tag Archive: Global Stock Markets

Weekly Thoughts 20 May 2016

This past week I listened to one fund manager from Coronation here in Pietermaritzburg and spoke to three others on email, one locally from Marriott and two others who are globally involved in fund management. One being a chap whom I went to visit on the Isle of Man two years ago.

Questions and things I was looking for, was around do they think there was about to be a global (and therefore including SA) stock market ‘crash’ or correction. All four sources suggested that global market growth for the year ahead was not expected to be great. They were not really expecting a crash but did expect some choppy times ahead, with caution for South Africa depending on how a few political games play out. They were finding better value in consumer orientated companies that will continue to provide a dividend, which in the long run, will support their own share price.

All this is not really a problem for investors who are not needing to sell out of their investments because over the years things in the investment world re-balance themselves and go forward. Its also no problem for folk receiving an income from income focussed investments, because the value does not determine the income. Reduced dividends might reduce the income, but reduce capital value will not. Its also not really a problem for someone with funds to invest right now because again, in years to come values will go up. Some investors might even want wait to see if there is about to be a severe drop in market values before investing because then they buy assets that are on sale.

My contact on the Isle of Man said a good thing too: “Timing the market, on the other hand, is desperately difficult. Getting it right once is hard enough (i.e. before a market crash) but then timing the recovery well is more than doubly difficult – rather like winning the lottery twice.”

Weekly Thoughts 13 October 2015

Last week was a frustrating week in two ways. Firstly, contract time up allowed me to get a new cell phone, which causes all those data movement and learn-how-to-use-a-new-phone-issues. Then secondly, we changed our email domain in the office because my IT guy said that it would solve the email gremlins we’ve been having due to my website being hosted on the domain of kevinmurray and the emails on telkomsa. I just have to believe these more clever than me IT guys. And so it is that you’ll notice this newsletter coming to you from a new email address: kevin@kevinmurray.co.za Apologies for the admin. The ladies in the office are now also on their first name @kevinmurray.co.za. The old emails will continue to receive mail for another few months.

However one long term frustration thankfully came to an end last week. I was finally able to collect my son’s unabridged birth certificate from the local Home Affairs office. I had applied for it in November last year. I’ll say nothing more about this except that I now have 13 email addresses to people in higher places in Home Affairs that I am willing to sell to the highest bidder.

While talking about global stock markets last week with two clients, I brought up the fact that in all economic times there will be companies that benefit. Take for example the migrant crisis in Europe. There are hundreds of thousands of meals being given out daily by volunteer workers, thousands of packs of things to help people cope with basic daily needs such as toothpaste, soap, washing powder and shampoo, probably thousands of first aid and medical supplies being dispatched. My guess is that every meal pack has a nestle product in it, every daily needs pack has a Unilever product in it and in every medical supply pack there is a Johnson & Johnson product. Consumer companies will always be OK in the long term. Not from delighting in misfortune, but because they involve the basics of life.