Weekly Thoughts 25 April 2025

Wax on… Wax…. Sorry, Vat on… Vat off. Vat on… Vat off. …for those of us old enough to have watched the Karate Kid…

Taking a toll on the GNU, this is. Parties desperately seeking stability on weak legs.

A new US ambassador is a delicate point right now too. Gary Player or Charlize Theron might be good candidates.

A fund manager from Ninety One recently gave a good Trump statement: ‘a rational decision made today based on irrational information, could prove to be a very irrational decision tomorrow.’ He went on to say that ‘In markets, the best days tend to occur around the worst days.’ What he’s implying, is that there are buying opportunities.

And so everyone and the world is navigating the chaos. While we all spend our money in exactly the same places and feel nervous to invest because we want markets to become expensive again first. At least there is entertainment every day.

Weekly Thought 28 February 2025

I said last week that this week I will write about what I suggest doing with money that you receive that you would never have had. My dread disease claim being one example, inheritance being another.

There are ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ and exceptions to my suggestions, one of them being people who have so much wealth and income already that they don’t need a plan like these. But my basic principle is not to lose the money as a whole, as an entity of capital. You want to preserve this money you received and make it count in your life.

I usually say these funds must either be used to get rid of debt, or to provide income, either now or in the future. If we use it to reduce debt, then we need to continue paying the same amount we were paying each month into that debt. And when you settle the debt earlier than you would have, keep saving the same amount each month to build some savings wealth up again.

A possibly better option in my mind, is to put the funds into an income bearing investment and use the income to pay into the debt. In this way, when the debt is settled, you still have the vehicle that provided that income. Here my point of do not lose the money as a whole is now illustrated. You can continue to use the income after the debt is gone for whatever you want: a new car, a holiday, for saving, for income in retirement, to re-do your kitchen… but, the vehicle providing the income, the money you would never have had, has not been lost.

If the source of money is going to be inheriting a living annuity from your parents or some other family member, then do not cash it out. Firstly, tax is paid on the lump sum coming out – but not if preserved – and secondly, you will probably spend the money in a way that will result in you no longer have the money as a whole. The annuity can be divided between the number of inheriting people/children, who will then each have their share continue in such an annuity investment. They can receive the 2.5% or 4% – or whatever percentage of income – and spend it how they want: on funding debt, on school fees, or payments for a new car, or partying on Saturday night… But again, the source of income is not lost. In this way, with these annuity investments, we can create generational wealth. They can be passed on. This is a massive benefit in the long run, but not initially recognized by someone who suddenly stands to inherit a couple of million Rand and just sees a new car or house or holiday round the world.

With a dread disease claim, another sound idea would be to keep the funds in such an income bearing investment and use the income (and at times even some capital if need be) for helping to pay for medical expenses. Here you are ring-fencing the funds to help along the same lines as to why you received them in the first place. For many of us reading this, you might well not need to use a claim payout in this category for paying for the medical reason you received it. This because our private medical aid probably paid for most, if not all, of the hospital bills and chronic meds. In my case, I paid for the GP, then the dermatologist, then the GP again, and then most of the lab fee. Medical aid paid for some of the lab fee. (Remember if your savings account paid for something, you are still paying). So I was out of pocket for a couple of doctor’s appointments, but I didn’t really need this money to cover any medical bills. [Hence on a side note, dread disease is not a vital benefit for folk with a good private medical aid and disability benefits.]

However, I am doing something slightly different with my R81,000 of early cancer cover claim. I am going to add it to my Allan Gray Retirement Annuity. But next week, for the 2026 tax year. I will be preserving the money as a whole; I will be helping myself get closer to the maximum tax contribution benefit for the ’26 tax year; the funds will be destined to give me income one day when I move them to a Marriott living annuity; they will be tax efficient; and another reason for me, I will be increasing my creditor protected wealth. [Money inside a retirement annuity or living annuity is creditor protected money.]

I would love to add this money to my dream of buying a 1960’s British sports car, like a Triumph Spitfire or an Austin Healey Frogeye. But it’s not sensible spending, because I am not in the category of people who don’t need a plan.

That was a lot of ramblings about what to do with funds you would not / should not / might not have had. Good for thinking about. I will dream of the British sportscar that I will probably never have.

Weekly Thoughts 21 February 2025

This story began in May last year and ended this month. The conclusion was a R81,027 payment to me for a dread disease claim.

It all began with my annual medical check with my GP. He looked at a small ‘mark / spot / thingy’, on my back that I could feel. He said he thought it was nothing but let’s go visit the dermatologist and check. After waiting three months to get an appointment, the Doc said she (also) thought it was nothing but she wanted it out to check the histology… was the new word for me.

So back to my GP for him to practice with his scalpel and take a chunk out of my back. There went a piece of me in one of those small lab bottles with a green lid.

The results came back, and it was a basal cell carcinoma. Which in English I think means an early-stage cancerous tumour that could become skin cancer. But the tests showed that my GP had got it all out so that’s good and nothing more to do.

I only wondered a couple of months later if I could get a dread disease payout. I read my policy documents: my Liberty Life policy I could see wouldn’t pay anything: the terms were from stage 1 cancer upwards. My Hollard policy had a benefit called ‘early cancer cover’. But I submitted a claim to both companies anyway.

A claim takes effort. You need to get the claim forms for yourself to complete, as well as for your doctor to complete. I pre-populated the doc’s forms as much as possible and delivered them to her rooms. I paid the admin fee myself for her to complete them – because the companies take long to pay or might not pay and then it holds things up – and personally collected them afterwards.

The result was Hollard paid me a percentage of the benefit category for early cancer cover and liberty said no, as I thought. I wasn’t bad enough yet. Sometimes we should view an unsuccessful claim as a good thing…. It means you don’t have something you don’t want.

Next week I will write about what I suggest doing with money that you receive that you would never have had: this sort of money…. also inheritance… money like this.

This week, my point is about reminding you to do that good and full annual medical. You will avoid, prevent, or better manage to treat, so many things with better results. So I have learnt for myself.

And secondly, a claim takes effort, and you have to drive it.

Weekly Thoughts 07 February 2025

I suppose I shouldn’t call these ‘Weekly Thoughts’ anymore but rather ‘Monthly Thoughts’…. Seeing as I haven’t been writing often enough.

We’re a month and a week into 2025. Nearly halfway to the Vernal Equinox. The days are getting shorter. This year will go faster than last year: it has one day less.

I could add thoughts around Trump’s dramatic and immediate stop to the US Aid program. How many people will stop getting help of one form or another, plus the number of people who suddenly lost their jobs because they work for some or other direct or funded Aid project.

I could add thoughts about the Chinese entering the AI game with DeepSeek and the resultant Magnificent Seven value loss / repricing. Depending on how one views this.

I could talk about the Sona of last night. I’ve often wondered about the title… ‘State Of The Nation’. If the title, why not talk to exactly what the title says.

But I’ll leave those topics.

Make it a year of getting your medicals done correctly. Reduce your sugar and processed food intake and walk up and down a hill every second day. I am seeing the consequences of the lack of these practises.

Take one day at a time. Make the decisions you make that day be the right ones. Tomorrow will take care of itself and yesterday you can do nothing about.

Take steps to reduce and eliminate the things that cause you stress. Get your life simpler. You will feel better for it.

Weekly Thoughts 6 December 2024

I had a wonderful conversation earlier this week with a 22 year-old young man who is a ‘Born Free’. A Born Free is a loose term used for someone born after our ’94 elections.

He currently works in a Hotel restaurant. Some days he runs the hotel bookings and all guests in and out. He has a matric and is saving to put himself through a college program to get a Safety Officer’s certificate in order to get into better employment and give himself better chances in life.

We spoke of economics, politics, voting, sport – he was wearing a springbok jersey that day. He chatted at length about what his age people were thinking and doing and how they see the future. He already runs his own small business through owning a few sheep which he breeds to sell. He explained how he manages all this to (also) not be a victim of stock theft. As is usual with someone of his generation, he is very IT literate and even helped me with something I couldn’t manage to do on my phone. (Which is usually Adrienne’s job!)

I asked him if he has a car, to which he said no but that he is saving up. To buy what I asked. He went onto AutoTrader and pulled up 30+ year old Corolla’s. I said, ‘clever man’.

I always find it very refreshing to have conversations with such exciting and efficient young people, who are our future. Wish I was in a place to employ him.

Weekly Thoughts 25 October 2024

A bit of a heavy topic, maybe…. But real for everyone at some stage.

Working with four estates this year and seeing firsthand what people are spending over the time of the passing of their family member, I see the immediate and direct costs and processes that are required. Some of you will also have seen these yourselves, dealing with someone in the family.

The first and immediate requirement is to call a Funeral Home. After collection, they deal with your doctor’s signatures on the Death Notice and they deal with Home Affairs for you, to obtain the Death Certificate.

But they might want payment upfront, for everything: Their service, the above services, the cremation fee, and your choice of coffin. This I have seen to be between R19,000 and R23,000. Someone in the family has to come up with this amount of money before anything will continue. You can be refunded from the Estate for these costs – a typical practice – but that cash might not come back until the Estate is ready to be closed. Could take a year or three. But someone still has to have the money straight away.

Then, a memorial service can vary. You might get the church hall for free, or you might need to rent a venue. Platters of eats can be ordered from your local Spar, or people might donate food. You might be wanting an open tab for a Wake at the local pub…. The varied options might cost anywhere between R5,000 and R20,000. And again, someone has to have the ability to pay this within the first week or so of the passing of your loved one.

Does this look possible, in your own circle, that someone has the cash flow to pay up to R40,000?

I know a funeral policy will help here. However, the Death Certificate is required for that payout, and therefore funds still need to found upfront.

As I said, not a great topic. Sorry. But so real.

Weekly Thoughts 27 September 2024

The withdrawal activity within the first month of the now famous ‘Two-Pot’ retirement thing has been frenetic for administrators. The figure is something over 6 billion Rand withdrawal applications in the first three weeks. SARS wins, with on average probably 20 to 25% of that. Banks will get some loans reduced and then the economy will benefit hugely, because even though these withdrawals are supposed to be for emergencies, most of them will simply be for wanting to spend money. Yet it is not a lot of money that people can get out – on average about R3000 to R22,000, after tax. That’s what we’re seeing with our corporate employee members who have requested this. With the expectation of 50 to 80 billion Rand of withdrawals in the first year, SARS and the economy will smile. I wonder if the sell-off needed for all this from the stock market will put a downward pressure on market prices…

Staying with the subject, it has also already come to light how some withdrawal applications have discovered that member’s pension fund money is not actually there to withdraw. A couple of hundred million Rand of this has been unearthed already. This happens when an employer deducts funds from an employee and then does not pay the money across to the fund administrator, either due to inefficiency or to spending the funds itself. It can also happen when the fund administrator – who has received the money from the employer – does not pay it across to the asset manager or the insurance benefits provider.

When we used to help administer a couple of pension and provident funds (very long ago), we discovered a pattern of this. Adrienne began to record and date and track the movement of the relative portions of money from employer to middle-man administrator to the investment manager and the insurance provider. Then she would contact someone if they had not moved in time. But then we moved these corporate clients away from such spaces to a far better and cleaner and more efficient way of doing employee benefits with no middle-man administrator.

This matter of employee’s funds not being paid across is a problem. It will be a very interest story, which I should imagine will also result in some further industry and legal actions.

Weekly Thoughts 16 August 2024

You might have seen news or read about this new Two-Pot retirement system.

I don’t like it. It basically lets people access the 1/3rd of their retirement savings that they were only allowed to access at retirement, now during the years before retirement. With minimums and maximums and some rules.

Supposed to be for ‘emergencies’, so the reason behind it all states. But who determines or regulates what an emergency is…? No one can and no one will. I have one corporate client already wanting something for a holiday. This ruling is not going to fix or help people’s ability to retire independently.

Every withdrawal during these prior years is taxed. And SARS is looking forward to this: they already anticipate a 5 billion Rand revenue earnings from this tax over the next year or so.

So you reduce your retirement wealth, your funds have less time to grow, you pay income tax on every withdrawal, you do this every two or three years for a couple of thousand Rand, and then you’re worse off at retirement.

Not a great idea.

Weekly Thoughts 3 May 2024

Last week I gave a brief attempt at explaining what tracker funds are. Today I am going to give you some figures of a client’s returns in two of these funds vs. a couple of managed equity funds.

It was fifteen years ago now, back in 2008, when I helped a client invest a sum of money across five equity unit trust funds. An equity fund is a fund that is 100% invested in shares on the stock market, there is no property or bonds or cash owned in the fund. They are the most volatile asset class in terms of value, but also offering the greatest potential for capital growth. Two of these five equity funds are Satrix funds – which are tracker funds. Each of the Satrix funds follows a different sector of the market. We split the funds equally across all five funds, the two Satrix funds and then the three managed equity funds: Allan Gray, Ninety One and Foord.

I’ve often mentioned to the client that it has been an interesting example, because he has had this basket of funds for so long now that it has been a good test of equity returns, which should always be at least 10 years.

Over the past 15½ years, the two Satrix funds together have grown by 298%. The three managed equity funds together have grown by 359%. Both return numbers are good. But the result is interesting. In this case, the managed equity funds have done 60% more.

As mentioned last week, many coaches might not be good enough to create anything more than the average team, which will often be adequate. Above average coaches would be required to gain above average results.

I use Satrix funds here and there for clients for capital growth. But never for income, you need active management for that. I also sometimes use the Satrix Balanced Fund as part of the mix in Retirement Annuities.

Weekly Thoughts 26 April 2024

I’m going to talk about what tracker funds are, also known as index funds, or ETFs. While there is more that could be written into my explanation, I’m just going to take my usual poetic licence using a simple example.

A tracker fund is a unit trust investment in which the shares held always have to match the average value of a specified basket, or a specific part or group of a stock market. Companies are bought when they meet the specific rules of the group, likewise they are sold if and when they move outside of those parameters. The fund follows an average, a predefined grouping. No subjective input is required from the fund manager. I am going to paint a picture by using our beloved Springbok Rugby Team.

Let’s assume the team is selected on weight. Our coach Rassie has no subjective choice: the heaviest player by position in the country gets that position. Let’s further assume that our dancing man, Trevor Nyakane, is our tighthead prop because he is the heaviest number 3 in the land. He then decides that he needs to become more mobile around the park, so he stops eating those 7 cheeseburgers a week and joins the local Park Run. He sheds 10kg and becomes a faster man. But now he is no longer the heaviest #3 in the land – he now weighs less than Frans Malherbe. So Trevor goes out the team and Frans comes in. A simple objective process. No opinion allowed.

Likewise, our lightning wings in the form of Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse would not be in the team. They just don’t weigh enough.

Rassie gets given this team without choice and has to work with that. The team selection follows a pre-defined set of rules. SA Rugby can pay him a lower salary because he has less thinking to do.

There might be many occasions when this ‘heaviest team’ wins, or does well. But there are crucial occasions when they might not, times when the subjective coaching interference might create better results. Likewise with tracker funds. They represent an average investment and might often do better. Likewise they carry lower fees, because the fund manager simply follows rules and doesn’t have to do any real decision making.

There will be times when the shares of a couple of companies have to be held, that might actually not be good to continue holding, but they have to be held until they fall outside of the rules. I’ll use the share of British American Tobacco for an example. One fund manager I use told me earlier this year that they had sold what they held of this company quite a while ago. I asked him why. He said they do not expect it to be able to continue growing its dividend in the years to come, so they have taken profits and sold. BAT’s share price has indeed declined a fair amount over the past year. An active fund manager can choose to sell. The tracker fund cannot sell until BAT’s weighting falls outside the parameters and in some cases, carrying that permanent loss into the fund.

Many coaches might not be good enough to create anything more than an average team, that it the catch.